The
number
of
rail
journeys


made
in
Britain
could
almost
double
in
the
next
25
years,
according
to
the
most
optimistic
of
possible
outcomes
suggested
by
consultants
Steer
in
a
report
for
the
Railway
Industry
Association.

RIA
has
often
protested
about
the
lack
of
long-term
railway
planning,
and
in
particular
the
government’s
failure
to
update
the
Rail
Network
Enhancements
Pipeline
document
for
several
years,
although
it
is
supposed
to
be
an
annual
publication.

RIA
chief
executive
Darren
Caplan
has
already
called
for
‘urgent
action’
to
‘provide
some
stability
to
the
rail
supply
chain,
to
avoid
suppliers
having
to
lay
off
staff
or
shift
work
overseas’.
The
crisis
at
Alstom
in
Derby
is
also
continuing,
with
warnings
that
the
works
could
close
because
it
has
no
new
orders
for
rolling
stock.

Steer’s
new
research
sets
out
several
possible
developments
between
now
and
2050,
with
passenger
numbers
increasing
by
least
37
per
cent
and
possibly
by
97
per
cent.

Various
factors
it
attempts
to
take
into
account
include
the
economy,
rises
in
population,
competition
with
other
modes,
changes
to
fares
and
timetables
and
other
policies
which
affect
rail,
such
as
reducing
carbon
emissions
with
the
aim
of
achieving
Net
Zero.

Darren
Caplan
said:
‘This
landmark
report
sets
out
a
range
of
scenarios
for
future
rail
passenger
growth,
yet
under
all
of
them
passenger
numbers
grow,
which
will
have
clear
impacts
on
capacity
in
the
future.

‘Under
the
lowest
growth
scenario,
even
if
the
Government
does
nothing
and
lets
the
industry
drift
along
as
it
is,
passenger
numbers
still
grow
by
a
third
in
the
25
years
to
2050.

‘Alternatively,
if
a
future
Government
adopts
a
bold
and
ambitious
strategy
passenger
numbers
could
double
by
2050,
dramatically
increasing
revenues.
Freight
is
also
likely
to
grow
in
this
time,
with
the
Government
itself
setting
a
75
per
cent
growth
target
over
the
next
25
years.

‘So
there
is
clearly
a
huge
opportunity
to
expand
rail
travel,
benefiting
the
economy
and
its
connectivity,
as
well
as
bringing
social
and
decarbonisation
benefits.
To
achieve
this,
we
need
to
see
rail
reform
and
a
long-term
rail
strategy
as
soon
as
possible,
including
a
plan
for
increased
north-south
capacity,
which
all
rail
experts
agree
will
not
be
delivered
under
current
plans.’